IMF Forecasts 7% Recession for Morocco’s Economy in 2020, Contradicting Local Projections

The International Monetary Fund stands out from all forecasts regarding the growth of the Moroccan economy for the year 2020. And for good reason! In the "World Economic Outlook, October 2020" it has just published, the IMF announces a recession of -7% of national GDP in 2020, for the Moroccan economy, compared to -6.3% for Bank Al-Maghrib, -5.8% for the High Commission for Planning (HCP), -6.2% for the Moroccan Center for Economic Situation (CMC) and -5.8% for the government.

The IMF’s forecasts state that Moroccan GDP growth would stand at 4.9% in 2021, before falling back around 3.7% in 2022. As for inflation, it would be limited to 0.2% in 2020 and 0.8% in 2021, while the unemployment rate would rise to 12.5% in 2020, before falling back to 10.5% in 2021. For its part, the kingdom’s current account balance would stand at -7.3% in 2020 (-4.1% in 2019), and at -5.2% in 2021.

At the global level, the document published by the IMF on Tuesday announces that the economy should contract by -4.4% in 2020, before rebounding with growth of 5.2% in 2021. "The global economy is emerging from the abyss it had fallen into during the Great Lockdown of April. But the Covid-19 pandemic continues to spread, many countries have slowed their reopening and some have reinstated partial lockdowns to protect at-risk populations," details the same IMF report.

Furthermore, "although the recovery in China has been faster than expected, the long climb of the global economy to activity levels comparable to those before the pandemic remains exposed to setbacks," the same document notes.