Faced with Spain, Morocco is no longer the same country it was twenty years ago

This is the analysis developed by El País, which compares the current situation with the crises that pitted Rabat against Madrid in 2002 over the Leïla islet, and then in 2021 in Sebta.

The main turning point came in December 2020, when Donald Trump recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. Back in the White House, the American president reaffirmed this position on August 1, 2026, and presented the autonomy plan as “the only basis” for a solution.

France has also toughened its support for Rabat, stating that “the present and future of Western Sahara fall within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty.” The United Kingdom, for its part, considers the autonomy plan “the most credible, viable and pragmatic” solution.

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Three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council—the United States, France and the United Kingdom—therefore now support the Moroccan proposal to varying degrees.

Washington, Paris and London alter the balance of power

The rapprochement with Israel represents the other major development. Since diplomatic relations were restored in 2020, security and military cooperation has grown significantly: joint exercises, air defense, intelligence and arms contracts have created a partnership that did not publicly exist during the previous crises with Spain.

Madrid itself changed its position in 2022. Since then, Pedro Sánchez has regarded Morocco’s autonomy plan as the “most serious, realistic and credible” proposal for resolving the Sahara conflict.

Economic ties further strengthen interdependence. In 2024, Spain exported €12.859 billion worth of goods to Morocco and imported €9.834 billion worth from the Kingdom. The two countries also cooperate closely on immigration, security and the organization of the 2030 World Cup.

The new crisis in Sebta has nevertheless caused tensions between Rabat and Madrid to rise again. Moroccan claims over Sebta and Melilla have regained unusual visibility in recent weeks, amid an election campaign in Morocco.

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Several specialists are nevertheless calling for this sequence of events not to be overinterpreted. The rise in rhetoric surrounding Sebta and Melilla could be linked to the legislative elections on September 23, while the Sahara remains Rabat’s diplomatic priority.

Morocco also has no obvious interest in opening a new major conflict with Madrid while the diplomatic battle over the Sahara has not yet been fully concluded.

The essential change lies elsewhere: compared with the crises of 2002 or 2021, Rabat now has far more diplomatic, military and economic support. This new configuration enables it to approach its disputes with Spain with greater confidence.