Expert: Morocco Unlikely to Initiate Armed Conflict with Spain, Cites US Influence

The former Chief of the Defense Staff, Fernando Alejandre, recently stated that Morocco does not pose a direct threat to Spain, but that the country should prepare to fend off any possible Moroccan attack. José Ángel Cadelo, an expert on Islam and the Arab world, believes for his part that Rabat has no serious reasons to open an armed conflict with Spain and that it will do nothing without "the express approval of Washington".

For the expert, Morocco has modernized and strengthened its army to prepare for a possible conflict with Algeria or the Polisario Front, both strongly supported by Russia, but not to attack Spain, a European country, a member of NATO.

"Let’s not forget that wars are not currently won by those who have the largest arsenal, but by those who have the best international alliances and those who have the economic power to support a prolonged armed conflict," he explains, also recalling that nearly a million Moroccans live in Spain and that the country remains the kingdom’s leading trade partner.

"No one is going to open fire in the Strait of Gibraltar and anyone who says otherwise may know a lot about combat strategies and war techniques... But knows almost nothing about international politics or diplomacy," concluded the expert, who also praised the "exemplary" police cooperation between the two countries in the fight against terrorism and illegal immigration.