Drought Threatens Morocco’s Agriculture and Economic Growth Forecast

While Bank Al Maghrib forecasts economic growth of 3.8% for the current year, the Moroccan Center for Economic Outlook (CMC) predicts a growth rate of 4.6%, after a disappointing rate of 2.9% in 2019. The lack of precipitation at the beginning of 2019, leading to a significant drop in agricultural production, explains this low rate. Last year, cereal production fell by 49% compared to the exceptional 2017-2018 season. It reached 5.2 million tons, well below the 6.1 million tons forecast by the Ministry of Agriculture.

In the absence of precipitation throughout the country, the prospects for a good agricultural season are evaporating. This, according to experts, would have serious consequences for small farmers, worsen rural exodus and slow economic growth, especially when we know that agriculture accounts for more than 15% of Morocco’s GDP and employs 40% of the workforce, reports article19.ma.

In a report published by the "World Resources Institute", it was clearly pointed out that Morocco is one of the countries facing enormous difficulties in terms of water. It was ranked 22nd among the countries most stressed by water. Morocco’s water stress is estimated between 1,000 and 1,700 cubic meters of freshwater available per person per year, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). And the situation could worsen by 2025, with forecasts of less than 1,000 cubic meters of freshwater available per person, according to the same source.

This is why the kingdom has developed a $12 billion program that includes the construction of dams, the improvement of water consumption, the preservation of water resources and the increase in supply in rural areas. The program, according to Aziz Akhannouch, plans to irrigate 510,000 hectares for 160,000 farmers.