Algeria promises to “hurt” Morocco with 2.4 million tonnes versus 15 million for OCP

“Hurting” the Moroccan economy: that is how TSA presents Algeria’s future integrated phosphate complex. However, this assertion does not come from the Algerian government, but from the analysis of an economist interviewed by the media.

The project is very real. According to data published by Sonatrach, its first phase is expected to enable the annual extraction of 5.5 million tonnes of raw phosphate, the production of 3.2 million tonnes in concentrated form, and the manufacture of 2.4 million tonnes of phosphate fertilizers. A 570,000-tonne urea unit is also planned.

To assess the potential competition with Morocco, however, fertilizer capacity must be compared, not the volume of extracted rock. OCP currently reports a production capacity of 15 million tonnes of plant nutrition solutions. The Moroccan group plans to raise this to 20 million tonnes in 2027 as part of an investment program worth 130 billion dirhams.

At maximum capacity, the first phase of the Algerian project would therefore remain more than six times below OCP’s current capacity and more than eight times below that targeted by the Moroccan group in 2027.

On Bladi.net : The Moroccan giant OCP is not affected by the crisis

Algeria’s arrival could increase competition in certain markets, particularly in Africa and the Mediterranean. At this stage, however, it is not enough to threaten OCP’s industrial position, as the group already has several processing platforms, an international commercial network, and new production capacities under construction in Morocco.

The full contract has not yet been finalized

Another important reservation appears in the official documents. Sonatrach presents the agreement concluded with Saipem as an EPC contract covering the processing and production facilities. But the Italian group specifies in its August 12 statement that it signed a limited authorization to begin work, valued at approximately 500 million euros.

This authorization notably covers detailed studies, the ordering of equipment requiring long lead times, and preliminary mobilization. Saipem expressly states that the full EPC contract remains under negotiation and finalization.

The 2027 deadline must also be clarified. The official statement relayed by the APS news agency sets March 2027 as the start of phosphate exports from Bled El Hadba. It does not guarantee that the complex will produce 2.4 million tonnes of phosphate fertilizers from that date.

The timetable calls for even greater caution because this project had already been announced in 2018, with an estimated investment of six billion dollars and commissioning then scheduled for 2022. That initial deadline was not met.

TSA also cites the cadmium present in Moroccan phosphate. OCP says that its fertilizers shipped to the European Union have been below the threshold of 20 milligrams per kilogram since 2025, compared with a European limit of 60 milligrams. Brussels nevertheless acknowledges that it does not have systematic controls allowing it to independently verify all the volumes concerned.

On Bladi.net : Morocco says it has reduced cadmium in its fertilizers, while Brussels acknowledges it cannot verify this

With its reservations and its future integrated complex, Algeria could become a new significant player in the fertilizer market. But the available figures do not yet make it possible to speak of a project capable of “hurting” Morocco by 2027: the announced capacity remains far below OCP’s, while the final industrial contract and the commissioning schedule still need to be secured.