Trump opens the door to Moroccan phosphates, Washington wants to close it
Donald Trump has barely suspended the duties imposed on certain Moroccan phosphate fertilizers when his own Commerce Department is already recommending that they be maintained over the long term. OCP has an eight-month window to return to the US market, without any guarantee that it will be able to remain there.
The US Commerce Department believes that permanently removing countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizers imported from Morocco would likely lead to the continuation of public aid granted to the sector. It therefore recommends maintaining the customs order introduced in 2021.
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According to the preliminary results of the five-year review reported by Argus Media, the OCP group could continue to benefit from subsidies estimated at 20.04 % if the US measures were removed.
However, this rate does not constitute a new immediately applicable customs duty. It is an estimate submitted to the US International Trade Commission, which must determine whether the removal of the duties could once again harm US producers.
The calculation largely uses the 19.97% rate established during the initial investigation. The Commerce Department removed a tax incentive for exports that no longer exists, but added other Moroccan programs identified during subsequent administrative reviews.
Eight months to return, without any guarantee of staying
This recommendation comes only a few weeks after Donald Trump’s decision to suspend for eight months the countervailing duties imposed on certain imports of Moroccan phosphate fertilizers.
The US president cited a “supply emergency” affecting farmers in the United States, who are facing persistent tensions in the fertilizer market. The measure theoretically allows Moroccan phosphates to temporarily return to the US market under more favorable conditions.
But this opening may be nothing more than a brief interlude. The Commerce Department’s review is continuing, and its outcome could lead to the reinstatement of the duties once the presidential suspension expires.
No sale of Moroccan phosphate to the United States has, for the time being, been confirmed since Donald Trump’s decision. OCP therefore faces a difficult choice: quickly take advantage of the window opened by the White House or wait to learn the customs conditions that will apply after these eight months.
The review, launched at the beginning of March, brings together the Moroccan government, OCP, and US producers Mosaic and Simplot. The latter support maintaining the protections granted to the US industry.
Mosaic was already behind the procedure that led, in 2021, to the imposition of countervailing duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphates. The US company argued that these subsidized imports were causing material injury to local producers.
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The final results of the part conducted by the Commerce Department are expected around October 28. They will not immediately end the suspension decided by Donald Trump, but they will weigh heavily on OCP’s future in the United States.