Trump’s Potential Return Raises Concerns of Morocco-Algeria Tensions

The return of Donald Trump to the White House, starting January 20, is causing concerns. It is very likely that the US President-elect will revive the project of opening a consulate in Dakhla, which, if it materializes, could push Morocco to "increase pressure on Spain to make similar gestures," estimates Eduard Soler, professor of international relations at the UAB, in an interview with Infobae. However, he excludes the opening by Rabat of a consulate in what was a Spanish colony until 1975. The expert considers that other "gestures" could be sought, in particular the extension of the Cervantes Institute.

According to Soler, Trump’s support for Morocco could also increase the risk that Rabat "will not be satisfied" with the Spanish proposals and "try to activate its usual lever: migration pressure". The fact that the future US president will have "more sympathies" for Morocco than for Spain constitutes an additional challenge in the event of new tensions between the two countries, like those observed during the massive assault on Ceuta in 2021, he believes, stressing that Rabat will have to carefully evaluate its actions and "reflect on the opportunity to weaken the Spanish government". "Morocco must measure its actions to avoid creating an unfavorable political situation," he adds. One thing is certain: "Morocco will always want more," the expert is convinced.

Hailing Moroccan diplomacy, which is, according to him, "astute and knows how to recognize the right moments," Soler believes that the maintenance of Nasser Bourita at the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a position he already held during Trump’s previous term, guarantees "continuity in personal relationships". Laurence Thieux, professor of international relations at the UCM, does not fully share Soler’s view. The main consequence of Trump’s return to the White House for the Maghreb will be "an emboldened and more assertive Morocco," she believes, considering that for the US president, the Sahara issue "is not a priority".

According to Thieux, Trump will not go beyond the measures already taken on the Sahara issue, except for the possible opening of the consulate. Therefore, the academic does not see in this context a factor likely to increase the pressure on Spain to fully recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. However, the two experts warn against "another risk that could ultimately harm Spain: an intensification of tension and rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, which could lead to a direct confrontation between the two countries, vying for hegemony in the Maghreb."