Spain Shifts Stance on Western Sahara, Aligning with Morocco’s Autonomy Plan

The Sahara issue has always concerned all Spanish governments, just as it has remained a priority for Morocco. Spain’s formal discourse of neutrality held for 47 years has not benefited the Polisario Front, nor has it allowed a fluid relationship with Morocco, which has proposed an autonomy plan for the Sahara since 2007, which several countries, including the United States, Germany and France, have gradually adhered to since December 2020.

To read: Spain Signals Shift in Western Sahara Policy, Potentially Aligning with Morocco

Spain has therefore only followed the example of these countries in recognizing that this autonomy plan is the "most serious, credible and realistic" solution to the conflict, analyzes Real Instituto Elcano. But such a decision, from the point of view of geostrategy, seems to benefit Spain more than it harms it. Initially, President Pedro Sanchez is trying to turn the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine to his advantage. He wants to make Spain a nerve center for gas supply to the rest of Europe, relying on its strong regasification and storage capacity.

To read: Spain Backs Morocco’s Sahara Plan as Territorial Dispute Eases

Secondly, this decision allows Spain to obtain from Morocco the guarantee of close cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking and jihadist terrorism, the control of migratory flows and the renunciation of its claims on Ceuta, Melilla and the Canary Islands. Meanwhile, Algeria considers this "abrupt" change in Spain’s position as a "new betrayal of the Sahrawis" while the Polisario is convinced that it does not change the legal status of the Sahara, which remains a "non-self-governing" territory under international law.

To read: Algeria Threatens Gas Supply to Spain Over Western Sahara Stance

But beyond these considerations, Spain’s decision raises many questions of interest. What guarantees does Spain have to ensure that Morocco respects its commitments? Will the United States play the role of ultimate guarantor? Will the Sahrawis, in conflict with Morocco in the Sahara, definitively renounce their political dream? Will the crisis between Algiers and Rabat stop there? These are questions that remain unanswered for the time being.