U.S. Phosphate Reserves Could Run Out in 40 Years: Morocco Becomes Indispensable

The United States could deplete its domestic phosphate resources over the next forty years. The warning accompanies a study published in the scientific journal PNAS, which analyzes ways to strengthen U.S. supplies through the recycling of this mineral, essential to agriculture.

The researchers studied the needs of 91 crops and the waste produced by 20 livestock categories in 3 142 U.S. counties. Their model draws on data dating back to 1866 and establishes projections through 2050.

Phosphorus, along with nitrogen and potassium, is one of the three main nutrients used to fertilize agricultural land. Without a regular supply, yields decline and food security can be directly affected. In fact, approximately 80% of the phosphorus spread on fields is reportedly not absorbed by crops.

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The study nevertheless shows that soils, livestock effluents, agricultural residues, sewage sludge and food waste contain significant recoverable quantities. The phosphorus already accumulated in U.S. soils could theoretically cover future needs several times over, but its extraction and transport remain technically and economically difficult.

In the immediate term, the United States remains dependent on imports. Morocco already produces more phosphate than the United States and has a supply capacity that Washington considers sufficiently reliable to meet the needs of its farmers.

Washington opens the door to Moroccan phosphate

On June 29, 2026, the White House declared an emergency regarding the availability of phosphate fertilizers. In its official proclamation, it acknowledged that U.S. production was insufficient to cover the country’s agricultural needs after exports were taken into account.

The presidential text expressly names the Kingdom of Morocco among the producers capable of supplying the United States “without interruption.” Donald Trump thus authorized the suspension, for a maximum of eight months, of the duties and deposits applied to Moroccan phosphate fertilizers.

This decision enabled OCP to resume its shipments to the U.S. market after several years of restrictions. An initial shipment of approximately 54 000 tonnes of Moroccan triple superphosphate arrived at the port of New Orleans to supply farmers ahead of the autumn campaign.

On Bladi.net : article 111503

In the long term, recycling could reduce U.S. dependence on imports. But until these supply chains become sufficiently profitable and organized, Morocco’s reserves and OCP’s industrial capacity will retain strategic importance for U.S. agriculture and food security.