Morocco’s Tourism Recovery Hindered by Slow European Vaccination Rollout

The delay in vaccination in Europe, Morocco’s main economic partner, will inevitably impact the kingdom’s economic recovery, in the sense that health restrictions will be maintained and strengthened in several sectors, including tourism.

"Health restrictions have tightened in Europe since the beginning of the second quarter of 2021. The Moroccan economy will thus continue to suffer the negative effects of the slowdown in demand from its main trading partners such as Spain, France, Italy and Germany. The implementation of new restrictions and border controls is likely to delay the start of the tourism sector and weigh on its growth prospects," explains Selin Ozyurt, senior economist, head of the Africa region at Euler-Hermes.

The automotive, aerospace and textile sectors will be the most affected by this delay. Export earnings, across all sectors, had recorded a 2.5% decline at the end of February, or 1.2 billion dirhams. As for export losses, they have experienced a severe drop in the textile and leather (-17%) and aerospace (-22%) sectors, hard hit by the Covid-19 health crisis. "These sectors are likely to record even greater losses with the deterioration of the health situation in Europe," warns Ozyurt, who estimates "that Moroccan GDP will rebound by around 4.2% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022." And to add: "The economic recovery in 2021 will be driven by the recovery in exports (+8.7%), but also by the rebound in domestic demand. The strength of global demand will particularly support exports of phosphates and their derivatives as well as the manufacture of automotive parts".

"The US stimulus plan of the Biden administration should generate a $360 billion increase in US imports from Morocco in 2021 and 2022. This boost will increase US demand for products from Morocco by about 5 billion euros (representing 16% of exports in 2019)," the expert also points out, adding however that "the success of the vaccination campaign is a major asset for the recovery of tourism activity in Morocco".

As of April 15, 2021, according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO), 12% of the Moroccan population have already received two doses of the Covid vaccine, twice as much as in EU countries.