Morocco’s Tourism Industry Braces for 39% Drop in Visitors Amid Coronavirus Crisis

According to the CFG Bank note on the impact of the coronavirus on Morocco, this likely 39% drop in tourists is explained by the strong dependence of the Moroccan tourism industry on tourists from the euro zone.

"The EU will therefore naturally continue to have positive or negative ripple effects on the Moroccan economy, depending on its own performance," analyzes CFG Bank. Moreover, these effects are likely to be heavily negative on tourism, the leading export sector, accounting for 22% of total goods and services exports.

"A 39% drop is equivalent to more than 5 million fewer tourists in 2020," the note specifies, recalling that Morocco received 12.93 million tourists in 2019. Heavy foreign exchange losses are in prospect. "This scenario includes a sharp drop in the number of French tourists, with -50%, no tourists from Italy and a 20% drop in arrivals from other countries," the bank’s analysts point out.

There is still a glimmer of hope. According to the CFG Bank analysts, "last week, the price of oil fell by 50%, hovering around $30 a barrel." "If this level persists for the rest of the year, it will have a positive impact on Morocco’s goods and services balance, offsetting the expected underperformance of the tourism industry," the note assures.