Morocco Maintains ’BB+’ Credit Rating Despite Drought-Induced Economic Slowdown

According to the published document, this rating is attributable to the slowdown in growth due to the severe drought the country is experiencing. Thus, Fitch expects a GDP growth of 1.1% this year.

However, the agency notes, a recovery is expected next year, with growth of 2.8%, driven by the rebound in agriculture, before reaching 3.2% in 2024, reflecting the easing of food and energy prices and the rebound in industry and tourism.

As for inflation, the agency forecasts an average of 6.2% this year, before falling to 2.2% in 2024, as pressures on global commodity markets ease.

As for the budget deficit, the document forecasts 5% of GDP in 2023, contrary to what the government had planned (4.5%) in the 2023 Finance Bill. "The slowdown in revenue growth due to the normalization of phosphate prices and the slowdown in industrial and tourism activities," Fitch points out, adding that this year Morocco’s budget deficit will be 5.2% of GDP.