Morocco Leads Major African Economies in Country Risk Rating, Allianz Trade Reports

According to this ranking, Morocco, with its "B3" rating, is in the Top 3 of African countries that are better able to withstand the crisis, behind Botswana (BB1) and on par with Mauritius (B3). This ranking takes into account the Country Rating derived from the analysis of several criteria such as macroeconomic imbalances, the business environment, political stability, the short-term alert indicator and the risks of financing the economy.

In Africa, the picture drawn by Allianz Trade regarding country risk in 2023 is gloomy. It describes a high risk of non-payments and business failures in most companies on the continent, due to the volatility of the international environment. Thus, global economic growth should fall to 2.2% in 2023 (vs. +3% in 2022), before rebounding to 2.3% in 2024, indicates the credit insurer, which forecasts a rise in global inflation, expected at +6.6% in 2023 and +4% in 2024.

At the level of the euro zone, hard hit by the global economic crisis, "the recession will be narrowly avoided, but Germany should not escape it. With GDP expected to decline by 0.1% this year, the country is paying a heavy price for the current energy crisis." This year, France should see growth of +0.4% (-2.2 points compared to 2022), compared to +0.3% for Italy (-3.5 points) and +1% for Spain (-4.5 points). In the euro zone, inflation will remain high, reaching an average of +5.6%.

The Moroccan economy should post annual growth of around +3% in 2023, driven by the recovery of the agricultural sector and the export of agricultural products, phosphates and the automotive industry. According to Allianz Trade, the volume of world trade should fall to +0.9% in 2023 (-2.8 points compared to 2022). In value, world trade should contract by -0.3%, after an increase of +9.6% in 2022 due to the acceleration of inflation.