Morocco Faces Potential COVID-19 Surge and Lockdown by November, Study Warns

The near future of the kingdom is worrying according to a study posted online by the "Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation" (IHMED) of the University of Washington, which announces an alarming worsening of the health crisis in Morocco until 2021.

The study is based on five indicators: total deaths, daily deaths, screening tests, hospital capacity and compliance with preventive measures. It takes into account two scenarios: the catastrophic one of widespread non-compliance with social distancing and mask wearing measures, and a second, less severe but equally alarming, of widespread compliance with these measures by the population.

In the first scenario, the IHME announces an explosion of deaths in the next three months with an average of around 1,000 deaths per day by the end of December, before starting to decline from January. As for the number of infections in the context of a scenario of non-compliance with health protection measures, the predictions give more than 300,000 infections by December 1st.

To cope with this picture of infections, the study indicates that the Kingdom should have 37,843 beds, including 8,000 intensive care beds equipped with 6,700 ventilators; figures much higher than the 20,000 beds, including 1,200 intensive care beds, mentioned by the health authorities.

Regarding health measures, the study mentions a relative compliance with barrier gestures, with mask wearing not exceeding 53% of the population, far from the 95% desirable.

Worse, in the absence of effective remedies or vaccines, the study does not foresee a bright spot in 2021 where Covid-19 will continue to wreak havoc, despite a downward trend in deaths and infections starting in January, the study’s deadline.