Morocco’s Economy Surges: 7.2% Growth Forecast for Q3 2021

The national economy consolidated by 12.6% in the second quarter of 2021, instead of +1% a quarter earlier, driven by a rebound of 11.7% in value added excluding agriculture and an increase of 19.1% in that of agriculture, according to the note published by the HCP.

Given an increase in agricultural value added and a 5.4% increase in non-agricultural sectors, economic activity would grow by 7.2% in the third quarter of 2021, instead of a contraction of -6.7% in the same quarter of the previous year, the same source specifies.

In detail, the agricultural value added contributes 2.1 points to the overall economic growth. For its part, the tertiary sector contributes +2.9 points to GDP growth, instead of +1.1 point for the secondary sector.

In the same vein, industrial, electricity and construction activities would continue the strengthening started at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, the growth of mining activity is slowing down, standing at +1.6%, on an annual basis, instead of +4.2% a year earlier.

Domestic national demand continues its recovery for the third consecutive quarter, driven by the rise in household spending, in a context of strengthening of food and manufactured goods purchases and an increase in catering expenses, leisure and transport services. Public spending remains relatively dynamic, placing the increase in public consumption at 4.3%.

Overall, and given a 5.4% increase in value added excluding agriculture and a 19.1% rebound in that of agriculture, economic activity would record an increase of 7.2% in the third quarter of 2021, year-on-year, instead of -6.7% in the third quarter of 2020.