Morocco’s Economy to Shrink 6.3% in 2020, Rebound Expected in 2021

The Moroccan economy will experience a 6.3% decline with declines of 5.3% in agricultural value added and 6.3% in non-agricultural sectors, according to the baseline scenario retained by the central bank. It made this known in a press release following the third quarterly meeting of the institution’s Council.

For the year 2020, the forecast announced in June has been revised downwards due to the slower than expected start of activity. As well as the implementation of certain local or sectoral restrictions due to the resurgence of infections, not to mention the almost total closure of borders for travelers.

However, GDP would rebound by 4.7% in 2021, driven by a 12.6% increase in agricultural value added, under the assumption of a cereal harvest of 75 million quintals as well as an improvement of 3.7% in non-agricultural value added.

These prospects are nevertheless surrounded by uncertainties regarding the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the extent of its repercussions and the pace of recovery. Regular updates will then be necessary, indicates BAM.