Morocco’s Economy Set to Contract 5.8% in 2020 Amid Drought and COVID-19 Crisis

"Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should fall by 5.8% in 2020 against a growth of 2.5% in 2019," the HCP indicates in the Exploratory Economic Budget document 2021.

In the primary sector, a decline of 5.7% is noted in 2020 against a decline of 4.6% recorded in 2019. Non-agricultural activities should fall by 5.3% in 2020 while it experienced an increase of 3.7% in 2019, the same source specifies.

Regarding the secondary sector, a decline of nearly 6.9% in 2020 is noted against an increase of 3.6% in 2019, excluding the activities of the chemical and para-chemical industries and those of the mining sector.

As for the tertiary sector, activities should fall by 4.5% in 2020 against an increase of 3.8% in 2019. Tourism and transport would be the sectors most severely affected by the crisis.

The unemployment rate, for its part, should reach around 14.8%, an increase of 5.6 points compared to 2019, the HCP points out, adding that the financing needs of the national economy should experience an increase of 6.9% of GDP against 4.4% in 2019.

On the public finance front, the measures taken by the government to limit the spread of the virus should lead to a widening of the budget deficit to around 7.4% of GDP, well above 6.1% of GDP, the average annual level recorded in the years 2011 and 2013.

As for the overall public debt, it should exceed 90% of GDP, up nearly ten points from 2019.