Morocco’s Economy Poised for 5.3% Growth in 2021 as Covid Recovery Takes Hold

Based on the analysis note from CDG Capital Insight on "the Moroccan banking sector facing the Covid-19 crisis", the forecast growth of 5.3% that the Moroccan economy should record in 2021 would be possible thanks to the 18.0% increase in agricultural value added expected by Bank Al-Maghrib, and an improvement of 3.5% in non-agricultural value added.

Thus, all the forecasts of the national institutions made public to date envisage the economic restart in the kingdom for 2021, given the vaccination campaign established and the various measures put in place by the government and the central bank for an effective recovery of the economy.

However, the CDG Capital Insight note indicates that "several uncertainties persist around the economic outlook due to the availability in sufficient quantity of the vaccine both in Morocco and internationally, as well as the extent to which governments and central banks continue to support the economy." In addition, the High Commission for Planning (HCP) shows through its provisional figures a contraction of 7.1% of GDP in 2020, after the drop in agricultural activity caused by the unfavorable climatic conditions that affected the cereal production of the 2019/2020 season.

A contraction that is also in line with the drop in non-agricultural value added due to the total or temporary cessation of activity in various sectors after the security measures put in place, especially the lockdown established at the national and international level.