Morocco’s Economic Growth Forecast Cut to 2.4% for 2020, Below Official Estimates

The kingdom is heading towards a slowdown in its growth, according to the report presented by the credit insurer. The stagnation of the agricultural value and a decline in non-agricultural growth are to blame. According to the same source, foreign trade remains the weakest link in the economy, with a negative contribution to growth in 2019 and 2020.

"The growth of agricultural exports should be limited to 8 billion dirhams in 2019, nearly 4 times less than in 2018, reports Médias24. But phosphates and the automotive industry have been the two main disappointments in terms of exports. Morocco has lost the momentum of European growth," the insurer’s report states. Fortunately, the year 2020 holds surprises with an additional 10 billion dirhams in exports, including 2 billion with Spain and 1 billion with India. It is the chemicals (phosphates), agri-food and automotive sectors that will generate the bulk of this additional amount.

As for the HCP, it is less pessimistic than Euler Hermes. It announced a rate of 3.4% for the Kingdom. The structure headed by President Lahlimi would rather that the Moroccan state finance domestic demand through external demand. The HCP’s perfect solution is to strengthen national savings as an alternative to public debt, already at a high level.

Abdellatif Jouahri, wali of Bank Al-Maghrib, points an accusing finger at the politicians, authors of the current slowdown: "When an operator sees politicians squabbling every day, how do you expect him to take risks? That’s the main factor," he fumes. The Bank, for its part, recommends a growth of 3.8% for Morocco.