Morocco’s Economic Growth Forecast for 2023 Falls Short of Government Expectations

The government is more optimistic with a growth rate of 4% and the World Bank forecasts a growth of 3.5%. Despite this uncertainty, the HCP stresses that these challenges can be overcome by strengthening the productive investments of private companies and households.

HCP experts justify the modest growth forecast due to the persistence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the evolution of interest rates, as well as epidemiological and climatic risks. The risks of drought, which strongly impacted Moroccan agriculture in 2022, are still likely. To address these challenges, the HCP recommends that the government and agricultural professionals redefine the agricultural development strategy, strengthen food sovereignty, preserve the environment and improve farmers’ incomes.

A slowdown in corporate investment is also expected due to the new changes in corporate tax levies, the broadening of the tax base and the continued monetary tightening policy. However, the HCP estimates that if these parameters are mastered, a slight acceleration in household consumption is expected due to the expected increase in agricultural income and the sustained level of remittances from Moroccans residing abroad (MREs).

To avoid a further weakening of economic growth, it is therefore essential, warns the HCP, to strengthen productive investments such as those of private companies and households, which have accounted for 66% of total gross fixed capital formation on average between 2000 and 2019. It is therefore important for the government and economic actors to work together to overcome these challenges and ensure stable growth for the country.