Morocco’s COVID-19 Cases Surge as Deconfinement Approaches, Study Reveals

Saïd El Melhaoui and Nabil Azouagh, two doctors in statistics and mathematical modeling from the University Mohammed Premier in Oujda, are concerned about the health situation in Morocco. To better understand the situation which, instead of improving, is only getting worse, the two researchers conducted a study based on daily data on new cases and the positivity rate of the covid-19 test, for the period from March 30 to July 6, 2020, indicates the newspaper l’Economiste.

The analysis of the two academics reveals the existence of three breakpoints in the series of new cases: April 13, May 12 and June 18. Thus, they establish three pandemic phases, to which a fourth phase (from June 19 to July 6) is added, following the deconfinement adopted on June 10.

In the first phase, which runs from March 30 to April 18, the test positivity rate is around 22% and the average daily number of tests is around 518.

In the second phase, which runs from April 19 to May 12, this rate has dropped significantly to 7.18%. In this phase, the confinement adopted on March 20 has borne fruit.

During the third phase, between May 13 and July 6, where deconfinement was initiated, a new significant drop in the positivity rate was recorded (around 1.2%). This drop was accompanied by a sharp increase in the number of tests performed, reaching 18,504.

After analyzing these rates, the researchers find that the total lockdown led to a considerable reduction in the infection rate and that the gradual deconfinement seems to be bearing fruit, despite the variations noted in the positivity rates. However, caution must remain, as the academics estimate that covid-19 continues to resist the measures of control and prevention.