Morocco Braces for Economic Impact as Russia-Ukraine War Threatens Trade and Wheat Prices

Like the world economies, the Moroccan economy could be affected by the economic consequences of the war triggered by Russia. In 2021, Moroccan imports of wheat, corn or even plastics from Ukraine amounted to 2.7 billion dirhams, while Moroccan exports of natural and chemical fertilizers, passenger cars or fish to this Eastern European country were estimated at 677 million dirhams. That same year, Moroccan imports of gasoil and fuel-oil, gasoline and petroleum gas or even ammonia from Russia amounted to nearly 13 billion dirhams, while Moroccan exports of citrus fruits, fresh or dried fruits or even raw sugar to Vladimir Putin’s country were estimated at 654 million dirhams.

In value, the wheat imported from Ukraine reached 1.1 billion dirhams and the citrus fruits exported to Russia 323 million dirhams. Could the war between the two countries produce a negative impact on the supply of wheat and the marketing of citrus fruits? The Moroccan government council has assured that the war has no problem or effect on the supply on the local market, as Morocco has, according to officials at the Ministry of Agriculture, an official stock of five months, in addition to a reserve available from farmers.

What the kingdom could fear is the surge in prices of products. Already, the closure of ports in Ukraine (representing 12% of world wheat exports) is behind the surge in the price of wheat, which currently exceeds $310 per tonne. This high level of prices will have to weigh heavily on the state budget, while contributing to the widening of the budget deficit, comments La Vie éco. Fortunately, only about 20% of Moroccan wheat imports come from the Black Sea, while the remaining 80% are imported from other countries, particularly France.