Morocco’s Automotive Industry Surge Challenges Spanish Market

Despite undeniable assets, the Moroccan economy has experienced ups and downs in recent years. Growth, both in overall GDP and per capita, has remained modest compared to its potential. Signs of slowdown have even been observed recently. "Morocco’s weak economic performance this year is probably just a temporary setback," however tempers James Swanston, analyst at Capital Economics, quoted by El Economista. Stéphane Alby, economist at BNP Paribas, points to a drought that has severely affected the agricultural sector. Excluding agriculture, growth has maintained an annual rate of 3.3% in the first half of 2024.

The horizon therefore remains clear. "Thanks to low and stable inflation, a more accommodative monetary policy and a thriving manufacturing sector, we expect the Moroccan economy to grow around 5% in 2025 and 2026, faster than other analysts forecast," says James Swanston. And to add: "In the longer term, it is likely that income convergence with the United States will be one of the fastest in the emerging world."

Morocco, with a per capita income of around $4,200, is still far from Spain’s $30,000, according to the IMF. But Rabat intends to catch up by drawing inspiration from Spain’s economic takeoff between 1950 and 1974, a period marked by an average annual growth of 6.3% and the establishment of major foreign automakers.

Renault, already present in Morocco since the 1930s, has accelerated its development in the 21st century. Its plants in Casablanca and Tangier have produced more than four million vehicles since their opening in 2005 and 2012. Citroën, for its part, aims to produce 100,000 vehicles per year by 2027. Moroccan automotive production jumped 15% last year, exceeding 500,000 units. The country now produces more cars than Hungary and Romania, and is catching up with Poland, according to Capital Economics.

"Morocco has recently undergone profound changes with the development of the automotive sector. Exports from this sector have more than tripled in a decade, significantly improving the economy’s ability to withstand external shocks," notes Stéphane Alby of BNP Paribas.

Morocco is therefore betting on the automotive industry to accelerate its growth and get closer to European living standards. Remains to be seen whether this strategy will be sufficient to meet the challenges it faces.