Morocco-Algeria tensions: the specter of armed conflict is looming

The attempt by Polisario militiamen, supported by Algeria, to attack on Saturday a group of civilians in Mahbès, Morocco, near the border with Algeria, is further proof of the Algerian military regime’s willingness to "burn the earth in the Maghreb region," analyzes the French newspaper La Voix du Nord, recalling that Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s country deployed its troops and heavy weapons in Tindouf, near the Moroccan border, in October.

In a recent statement, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita said that "the indicators testify to Algeria’s willingness to ignite war in the region," stressing that war would be Algeria’s only response to "Rabat’s successes on the international scene concerning the Sahara issue," including the kingdom’s recognition by Spain and France on this territory.

According to the French newspaper, the Italian research center IARI had looked into this issue last September, arguing that "the cross-border tensions between Morocco and Algeria remain high, and any incident could lead to a real crisis in North Africa, constituting a catastrophic scenario likely to destabilize the fragile balance in the region."

The risk of an imminent confrontation between the two neighbors seems real, say the analysts, evoking the arms race of the two countries. Morocco’s military budget for 2025 has increased by 7%, compared to 10% for Algeria. For its part, the UN Security Council expressed "deep concern" at the end of October in the face of the risk of escalation of tensions in the region in recent months.