Morocco-Algeria Tensions Escalate: Military Buildup and Diplomatic Shifts Raise Regional Concerns

"The growing dangers result from a confluence of factors. First, the military buildup on both sides has continued to increase tensions. Secondly, Algeria’s growing diplomatic assertiveness will allow it to be better heard in international affairs. Thirdly, on the ground, Morocco’s willingness to use drone strikes to eliminate Polisario Front members could precipitate an escalation," explains Francisco Serrano in an op-ed published on the Middle East Institute website. According to him, a more active Algeria will pose new challenges for Morocco in the coming months.

"For years, the Algerian regime has been hampered by weaknesses within the country and has had limited influence abroad. But recently, Algiers has seen its internal and external positions improve. After suffering a nationwide wave of popular protests in 2019-21, the army-led autocratic regime has been able to stem dissent, resorting to repression and taking advantage of the restrictions imposed by Covid-19," analyzes the journalist. Algeria’s next move next year is to bring the Western Sahara issue back to the UN agenda. "Algiers also wants to push for a broader reform of the Security Council to increase the weight of African states within the body, as well as that of the South more generally. This will allow it to strengthen its alliances and more easily encourage other countries to adhere to its vision of a political settlement for Western Sahara through self-determination," says the analyst.

However, Francisco Serrano believes that "it will be difficult for Algeria to upset the status quo that Morocco has established on the ground. But the mere attempt to do so will increase friction between the two neighbors. At any time, Algeria will try to counter Morocco’s strategy of extending de facto control over Western Sahara, by delaying a political resolution, while strengthening international support for its sovereignty claims." And he adds: "All this portends increased dangers. The possibility of an open conflict between the two neighbors is low. Neither Algiers nor Rabat would derive much benefit from a war. Beyond the resources it would require, the confrontation would weaken each regime’s position with its own people."