Morocco-Algeria: The security dilemma threatening to ignite the Mediterranean

The observation of a "sleepwalking march towards war". Relations between Algeria and Morocco are going through a critical phase of deterioration since the Guerguerat crisis in 2020. According to the analysis published by Stimson, the two powers are trapped in a security dilemma marked by opposing geopolitical alignments. While Algiers is strengthening its ties with the Sino-Russian axis and joining the BRICS bank, Rabat is consolidating its partnership with the United States and Israel following the recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara.

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A militarized rivalry. The escalation is manifested by an unprecedented arms race on the continent. Algeria is massively investing in Russian defense systems, including submarines and advanced aircraft. For its part, Morocco is mainly sourcing from the United States, France and Israel to expand its drone and missile capabilities. This mistrust is exacerbated by the breakdown of economic ties, illustrated by the closure of the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline in 2021 and the total lack of trade interdependence.

Major repercussions for European Union countries. The instability in the Maghreb is already weakening the interests of Italy, France and Spain. Madrid, in particular, has experienced a 45.9% drop in its exports to Algeria in 2022 after supporting the Moroccan autonomy plan. Migration management is also used as a lever of pressure, as during the Ceuta crisis in 2021 when more than 10,000 migrants crossed the Spanish border in retaliation for a diplomatic dispute.

A European response deemed too fragmented. Currently, the European Union does not have a unified position, with each state prioritizing its bilateral interests. While Paris and Madrid now support the Moroccan project in Western Sahara, Italy and Germany maintain a strict neutrality to preserve their energy agreements with Algiers. This lack of coordination weakens the credibility of the European bloc and exposes it to diplomatic blackmail, compromising its ability to act as a reliable mediator.

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Towards a "flexible dual containment" strategy. To stabilize the area, experts recommend the creation of a dedicated working group within the European External Action Service. This approach proposes to link economic development to diplomatic engagement, for example through the financing of a green energy corridor connecting Morocco, Algeria and Italy. By promoting concrete interdependence and common cultural projects, Europe could transform this logic of confrontation into a sustainable Mediterranean partnership space.