Japan World Cup threat: Morocco must not underestimate statistics

Japan first drew with the Netherlands (2-2), before thrashing Tunisia (4-0). Two very different results, but which tell the same story: this team knows how to adapt. Against the Oranje, the Japanese had less possession, with 341 passes compared to 524 for the Netherlands. They only shot 10 times, for just 3 shots on target. But they scored two goals. Their xG, around 0.589, above all shows ruthless efficiency: Japan doesn’t need to dominate to punish.

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Against Tunisia, the picture was different. Japan this time controlled the match, with 583 passes, 11 shots, 5 shots on target and an xG of 2.126. The 4-0 scoreline is therefore not merely the result of maximum luck. It also reflects a real ability to build play, control the pitch and break down a defense. Ueda, who scored twice, Kamada and Junya Ito confirmed that danger could come from multiple players.

For Morocco, the message is clear. Japan may be less physically impressive than the Netherlands, but it is difficult to read. It can suffer without panicking, as against the Oranje, or take control of the ball against a weaker opponent, as against Tunisia. It is a patient, disciplined team and very dangerous whenever it finds space.

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The Atlas Lions would therefore be wrong to see this possible Round of 16 tie as a favorable draw. Japan may seem more approachable, but the numbers tell a different story: this selection doesn’t always dominate, but it punishes quickly. And in a knockout match, this type of opponent can become a real trap.