Experts Warn of Potential Low-Intensity Conflict Between Algeria and Morocco

"While international relations are undergoing a profound upheaval, the beginnings of which we are witnessing, Algerian-Moroccan relations remain prisoners of the same causes, logics and means of the 1970s, when the world was at the height of the Cold War between the two blocs of East and West," notes Cheikh Hamdi in an interview with Sputnik.

He rules out a possible "total war between the two sworn brothers for several reasons, linked to relations with the European Union". "However, a low-intensity conflict that can be quickly circumscribed [like Amgala I and II in 1976, editor’s note] is quite probable in the coming months, if the dynamics of the escalation are not reversed," estimates the researcher in geopolitics and defense policies.

According to him, what has changed the geostrategic situation in the Maghreb, the Sahel and Africa is the foreign policy of the United States led under the Trump administration and which his successor is apparently continuing with some minor adjustments. "This culminated, with regard to the Middle East and North Africa, in the conclusion and signing of the Abraham Accords by certain Arab countries: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, with Israel," added Cheikh Hamdi.