Expert: Morocco-Polisario War Unlikely, Conflict with Algeria More Plausible

"There is no possibility that this will happen, Morocco would annihilate it within twenty-four hours," he said to Hespress, alluding to the Polisario, which made a declaration of war last Friday. "If there were to be a war, it would be against Algeria, with a probability not exceeding 50%," he is convinced. However, he assures that the issue of laying down arms in the current circumstances is excluded.

The political scientist states that there is more discord between the kingdom and Algeria than between Morocco and the Polisario on this issue. But "Algeria, he notes, avoids the issue due to international and geostrategic calculations, and also due to the circumstances within Algeria and the desire to conceal the situation of popular rebellion it is experiencing on a daily basis."

The "Polisario and Algeria resort to provocations and violate the injunctions of the UN and the sovereignty of Mauritania. Morocco, in Guerguerat, intervened, after exhausting all means and recourse to international arbitration," explained the specialist, stressing that the kingdom so far continues a policy of wisdom and restraint but will act firmly and forcefully to repel any attempt to violate its integrity.

"There is no army in the world that would have acted as peacefully and effectively as the FAR, while most of the world’s armies would have fired at the approach of buffer zones. Morocco is restoring peace and securing the entire area. The United Nations has shown that they were not able to impose these conditions there," he added, before referring to the latest report of the UN Secretary-General from last September. According to him, this report confirms that the Polisario had committed no less than 53 violations.