US Could Play Key Role in Western Sahara Conflict Resolution, Report Suggests

The analysis site 19FortyFive, specialized in foreign policy and national security affairs, has published a report entitled "Breaking the Impasse... A Strategic Framework for Resolving the Sahara Conflict".

This document, written by Amine Ghoulidi, a researcher at King’s College in the UK, examines the possibility for the next US administration to play a role in resolving this protracted conflict. According to the report, the recent rapprochement of the positions of France and Spain creates a context that deserves special attention.

The report suggests that a resolution of the Sahara conflict could allow the United States to make progress on three strategic axes. First, to limit the expansion of Chinese influence in an important area between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic. Second, to reaffirm American influence in contested areas. Third, to strengthen ties with reliable partners. The document stresses that inaction could, on the contrary, favor Chinese interests in the region, given the intensification of China’s economic and security partnerships in North Africa.

The report notes that the US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara has changed the situation. France’s recent position has, for its part, contributed to the emergence of a certain consensus among members of the Security Council, which could promote lasting peace. According to the document, a solution based on the current political frameworks is a possibility to consider, which could generate momentum for broader regional initiatives. The Moroccan autonomy plan is presented as a solution basis that is gaining recognition, unlike options deemed unrealistic such as partition.

The report highlights the current consensus among major players like France and Spain as a factor to be taken into account. Mauritania, a Western partner and close to France, could potentially join this consensus. The convergence of these actors, all of whom have an interest in the stability of the region, is a factor not to be overlooked.

The report also points out that the economic and strategic potential of the region remains largely untapped. The competition between world powers, particularly Russia and China, for a greater presence in the region, including in the Sahara, complicates the situation. Iran’s growing influence in the region, through its ties with the Polisario, is also mentioned. Faced with the growing Chinese economic influence in Morocco, the United States is called upon to define a strategic orientation.

The document suggests a transition from multilateral mechanisms to bilateral mechanisms. This could include the end of the MINURSO mission, considered unproductive, and the replacement of the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for the Sahara by more direct US diplomatic efforts.

A measured approach towards Algeria is also mentioned. It would be a matter of finding a balance between the recognition of its regional ambitions and the need for responsible behavior. Direct negotiations, led by the United States, are presented as an alternative to previous multilateral efforts. Algeria’s status as a regional power, due to its size and resources, must be taken into account, while encouraging it to adopt a responsible attitude. Simultaneously, the United States should encourage Morocco to present a detailed and realistic plan for the implementation of its autonomy initiative.