China Poised to Mediate Morocco-Algeria Tensions, Experts Suggest

"China finds itself at a crossroads as it expands its economic presence in the Maghreb. The escalation of tensions between Algeria and Morocco could threaten China’s economic and geopolitical interests in the region. But Beijing could have the power to bridge the gap and reorient the western Mediterranean towards its Belt and Road initiative," they argue in an op-ed published by East Asia Forum.

They note that relations between Algeria and Morocco are far from rosy. This has been the case since the Polisario Front, protected by the eastern neighbor, ended the 29-year-old ceasefire with Rabat in November 2020, where there had been new exchanges of fire between the two parties. Also since the U.S. recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara on December 10, 2020. While Morocco is multiplying its diplomatic successes, Algeria is considering intensifying its support for the Polisario Front and increasing its own military presence on the Moroccan border. According to the two analysts, this could threaten Chinese interests in the Maghreb and undermine its plans to achieve transcontinental connectivity via the western Mediterranean.

China is also a partner who is showing interest in phosphates. Morocco has more than 70% of the world’s natural phosphate reserves, while Algeria has the fourth largest global stock, recall Michaël Tanchum and Nerea Álvarez-Aríztegui.

"Rabat can offer Algiers opportunities to participate in the development of Morocco’s commercial connectivity. This would fit well with Beijing’s efforts to integrate the western Mediterranean into the Belt and Road. For its part, Algeria must join the negotiations between Morocco and the Polisario to secure future arrangements for the Sahrawis," the authors recommend, calling on Beijing, which is in an advantageous strategic position between the two parties, to make transition proposals that would benefit them.

"The time has come for China to facilitate constructive interaction between Rabat and Algiers. Its diplomatic efforts could determine whether the trajectory of the western Maghreb will be towards cooperation or conflict," they conclude.