$2.8 billion in Moroccan exports potentially targeted by new European rules

The report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre measures the possible consequences of more closely aligning the standards imposed on imported agricultural products with those applied to European producers.

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The analysis covers 18 active substances banned in the European Union and 235 agricultural products from 86 countries.

With approximately $2.8 billion in potentially affected trade flows, Morocco ranks behind Turkey, at $5.1 billion, but ahead of Colombia, at around $2.3 billion, Brazil, at $1.3 billion, and Ukraine, at $1.2 billion.

$2.8 billion does not mean $2.8 billion in losses

The Commission is not forecasting the disappearance of these exports. The figure corresponds to the value of trade that might need to be adapted if Brussels were to further lower the permitted residue limits for certain substances in imported products.

The actual impact would depend heavily on the ability of foreign producers to change their practices. In the most severe scenario studied by the JRC, the agricultural imports concerned in the European Union would decline by 41%. The decrease would fall to 8% in the intermediate scenario and to just 0.4% when producers’ adaptation is relatively easy.

Morocco is particularly exposed because of the weight of its agricultural exports to the European market. The report notably shows that some sectors could be affected much more than others: in the case of Moroccan tomatoes, for example, the intermediate scenario results in a modeled decline of approximately 60% in the volumes shipped to the European Union.

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None of these assumptions currently constitutes a decision by Brussels. But the study provides a measure of the stakes: if the European Union does tighten its requirements, $2.8 billion in Moroccan agricultural trade flows could be directly affected by the need to adapt.