2026 World Cup: a supercomputer gives no chance to Morocco

The Opta statistics office has unveiled its predictions for the 2026 World Cup after conducting 10,000 simulations of the final phase. Morocco is now beyond the top ten, overtaken by Belgium which only credits 2.34% chance of victory. The Atlas Lions, semi-finalists in Qatar in 2022, are part of the vast majority of the 48 participating countries whose title probabilities remain marginal, below the 1% mark.

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This decline in the statistical hierarchy is explained by the rise of European nations, the Netherlands and Norway now outpacing the Belgians. Faced with this observation, Thomas Meunier admits that there are "clearly favorite teams because their players play in incredible clubs". Spain leads the dance with 15.98% chance of lifting the trophy on July 19, closely followed by France and England, leaving little mathematical room for African outsiders.

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Nevertheless, the reliability of the supercomputer remains contested by past sporting results. At Euro 2024, England had fallen in the final despite their status as favorites, just like Brazil at the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. This tendency for statistical favorites to fail allows less expected nations to believe in their chances for the final organized at the New York New Jersey Stadium.