Morocco vs France: Paraguay exposed Blues weakness

France will be favorites against Morocco in the World Cup quarter-finals. The Blues have just eliminated Paraguay (1-0), after beating Sweden (3-0) and Norway (4-1). Eight goals scored in three matches, world-class individuals, Kylian Mbappé in full confidence: on paper, the danger is obvious.

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But France’s last match also tells another story. Against Paraguay, France won without really crushing their opponent. Opta figures show strong dominance in game volume, but offensive efficiency significantly more limited than in previous matches.

The Blues finished with 569 passes, 510 successful passes, 12 corners, 22 crosses and 15 shots. Yet only five shots were on target, for a total of 1.453 xG. Most importantly, France managed only five shots inside the box, against ten shots from outside. That’s where Paraguay left a very useful trail for Morocco.

The plan was not to dispossess the French. It was to push them away from the most dangerous areas. France played a lot, circulated a lot, sought the flanks a lot, but was less often able to enter the box cleanly. Morocco will probably have to accept certain weak moments, but above all must prevent the Blues from finding interior spaces.

Forcing France to cross rather than combine

The comparison with the Sweden match is telling. During the French 3-0, Opta records 25 shots, 12 on target, 16 shots inside the box and 3.242 xG. France had then found clear positions much more easily. Against Paraguay, the volume remains significant, but the quality of chances drops sharply.

This gives a first key to the Lions of the Atlas: close the center above all. Against France, defending deep is not enough. You must defend tight. If Moroccan midfielders press too quickly on the ball carrier, they will open spaces for Mbappé, Dembélé or Olise between the lines. If fullbacks get pulled too high, the Blues will find runs in behind. The objective must be to push France toward the flanks, then defend the box with great density.

The match against Paraguay also shows that French crosses are not always synonymous with danger. With 22 crosses and 12 corners, the Blues scored only once. Ousmane Dembélé, very dangerous against Norway with three goals, was much less decisive against Paraguay: no goals, no assists, but 12 crosses. Michael Olise, also decisive against Sweden, did not shoot against Paraguay and was mainly contained in a lateral passer role.

Morocco must therefore avoid the opposite trap: suffering too much in their box. It’s not about letting France cross freely for 90 minutes, but choosing the lesser danger. A cross under pressure, with the box well occupied, is better than an interior pass to Mbappé or a short return down the middle.

Mbappé obviously remains problem number one. Against Paraguay, he scores the only French goal, shoots five times, hits four on target and represents 1.174 xG by himself out of his team’s 1.453 xG. In other words, almost all clear danger came through him. Morocco must prevent him from receiving long balls, but also cut off his passes in the inner shooting zone.

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Paraguay did not eliminate France, but it reduced their offensive power. For Morocco, this is valuable information. The Blues are formidable when they accelerate down the middle and attack the box. They become more readable when forced to go around. The quarter-final may be decided there: let France have the ball, but prevent them from having the right zones.