Morocco’s Economy Faces Potential Recession Amid Pandemic and Economic Challenges

According to the CMC, the prognosis is influenced by the previous and subsequent development of the coronavirus pandemic.

In addition to the unpredictable evolution of the pandemic, other independent factors may justify a "reasonable" reassessment of the economy. Among these factors are the duration of the state of health emergency which could delay the recovery of the economy, the rainfall deficit, the increase in crude oil prices and possible fluctuations in the exchange rate.

A slow increase in crude oil prices will be noticeable with an expected average price of $50 per barrel in 2020. Prices, moreover, are currently below $20 on the world market.

The forecasts assume that inflation will remain relatively low. For the CMC, the Moroccan dirham will tend to depreciate against the two main currencies, namely the dollar and the euro.