Morocco’s Economic Recovery at Risk as Vaccine Supply Concerns Grow

The expected economic growth in Morocco is 4.6% in 2021 if the vast majority of the population (80%) is vaccinated against Covid-19 before the end of the first half of the year. In early January, the Minister of Health reassured that a return to normal life could occur in May, and that Moroccans would be able to observe a normal Ramadan month, without any restrictive measures.

Today, more than 12% of the population have already received their first vaccine dose. But Morocco, like all countries in the world, risks experiencing a vaccine shortage in the coming weeks. This is due to supply difficulties faced with the high global demand. This situation could pose a threat to achieving the targeted herd immunity and compromise the lifting of all restrictions and a return to normal life.

"If the vaccination does not progress as planned, we will have to readjust our recovery plan and the way we manage this crisis," said Ahmed Lahlimi, High Commissioner for Planning, who believes it is "too early to calculate the exact impact of this delay in the vaccination campaign on the projected growth in 2021." "With the emergence of new variants that are multiplying and wreaking havoc in Europe, our main trading partner, things are becoming very complicated, especially for sectors that depend on the international and European markets and will remain at a standstill for a long time," he explained.

The weather and...the informal sector to the rescue

For Lahlimi, the global health situation will inevitably disrupt the forecasts for Morocco’s economic growth. But, he reassures, "Morocco will be able to achieve a growth of more than 4% thanks in particular to the very good agricultural season that is looming." "In our initial forecasts, we were counting on an average agricultural year. Thanks to the rainfall the country has experienced, this season will be more than average; which will bring up to two additional points of growth. Agriculture will save this year 2021," he rejoices.

The High Commissioner for Planning is also convinced that the informal sector can help Morocco get through this crisis. "The informal sector has a very important economic, social and cultural function in our country," he said, recalling that this sector contributes 30% to GDP and employs more than 40% of the active population. "We are talking about a sector that produces, provides services, and meets a demand that will continue to grow. I am not advocating for the informal sector, I am saying that of course we need to think about reforms for the future, but also manage the present as best we can in order to limit the social and economic damage of this crisis," he concluded.