Moroccan Dirham Hits 3-Year Low Against Euro and Dollar Amid Import Surge

In its weekly note "MAD Insights - Currencies", AGR explains that this trend is due to the continued dynamism of import hedging operations, and a stagnation of export flows. AGR also specifies that the exchanges have fallen to -3.34% compared to -3.87% a week earlier, and the USD/MAD parity, in one week, has gone from 8.90 to 8.93.

Considering the current level of volatility of the dirham as well as the current contraction of foreign exchange position levels, AGR analysts announce a continuation of the catch-up of import flows during the month of February.

As for the euro/dollar parity, it should stabilize around 1.22 in the first quarter of 2021 and could see a progression around 1.24 by the end of 2021. Towards 2022-2025, it should stabilize around 1.25 on average, compared to a forecast of 1.26 a week earlier.

If the situation remains the same this week, AGR analysts expect a continued depreciation of the dirham against the dollar and the euro in the short term. Thus, the USD/MAD parity should reach 9.04, 9.06 and 9.09 at horizons 1, 2 and 3 months respectively, compared to an initial forecast of 9.02, 9.03 and 9.04 over the same periods. As a result, the dirham should depreciate against the dollar by 1.3%, 1.5% and 1.8% at horizons 1, 2 and 3 months respectively. The EUR/MAD parity, for its part, should stand at 11.03, 11.06 and 11.09 at horizons 1, 2 and 3 months respectively.