Mali Conflict Raises Fears of Spillover Into Mauritania and the Maghreb
The deteriorating security situation in Mali could spill over into the Maghreb, according to a study published on November 13 by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies. Its author, Jaime Bello, is particularly concerned about Mauritania, which is facing the advance of armed groups and a massive influx of Malian refugees.
With more than 2,200 kilometers of shared border, Mauritania is directly exposed to the violence rocking Mali. In a study published by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE), Jaime Bello argues that the worsening conflict in Mali now threatens the security balance of its Maghreb neighbors. Nouakchott is on the front line.
The analyst looks back at the April 25, 2026, offensive, when jihadists from the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and separatists from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) simultaneously attacked six Malian cities. Government forces, backed by Russian paramilitaries from the Africa Corps, suffered major setbacks. In Jaime Bello’s view, these events weakened Assimi Goïta’s hold on power and exposed the limits of his military apparatus.
Mauritania must also manage tensions caused by several incidents involving Malian soldiers and Russian fighters near its border. Mauritanian nationals have been killed, prompting diplomatic protests. Nouakchott even temporarily banned its herders from crossing the border with their livestock.
Mauritania faces jihadist threat
The study examines the measures Mauritania is using to contain this threat. The country relies on intelligence, mobile military units and surveillance of its vast desert regions. Its strategy also includes programs to deradicalize and reintegrate former extremists, as well as economic initiatives in areas vulnerable to jihadist recruitment.
Migration pressures are making the situation more difficult. According to an estimate by the Mauritanian government cited in the report, around 400,000 Malian refugees are in the country. Many are concentrated in the east, around the M’Berra camp, where infrastructure and local resources are under heavy strain.
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Morocco features in the analysis through the region’s diplomatic balance. Jaime Bello highlights Mauritania’s policy of “positive neutrality,” maintaining relations with both Rabat and Algiers. The author sees Mauritania’s stability above all as a major concern for Spain, given the risks of terrorism and migration to the Canary Islands. He recommends strengthening security cooperation, border surveillance and intelligence-sharing between Madrid and Nouakchott.
