Experts Warn: Algeria’s Potential Military Role in Western Sahara Risks Regional Instability

"It would be wrong to think that Algeria will remain neutral. Algeria supports the Polisario’s military war of attrition strategy. Although no new arms transfers from Algeria that could improve the capabilities of the Sahrawi People’s Liberation Army have been observed, Algiers could consider such transfers if a flare-up of violence killed a large number of Polisario fighters, for example. This would have implications for the entire region," warn the authors of the report entitled "Time for International Re-engagement in Western Sahara".

"To limit the risks, Morocco’s international partners - the United States and France - should push Rabat to accept, without precondition, a new envoy tasked with negotiating a de-escalation that could lead the two parties to negotiate a ceasefire," they suggest, calling on the United States and the Security Council to adopt a "more direct approach". According to the authors of the report, the Biden administration may be reluctant to call into question the US recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara. "Nevertheless, it could consider other ways to reassure the Polisario, for example by reaffirming Washington’s support for the six-monthly renewal of Minurso’s mandate," they indicate.

To avoid upsetting Morocco, Security Council resolutions should explicitly refer to the need to secure the El Guerguerat road, suggests the think tank, noting that the kingdom would have set "more specific and stricter" conditions for the appointment of a UN special envoy for the Sahara. "Morocco would have refused that it be a diplomat from a Scandinavian country (due to an alleged sympathy they would have for the Sahrawi cause), from Germany (because Rabat discovered with Köhler that it was difficult to counter Berlin) or from a permanent member of the Security Council (to avoid that illegitimate political pressure could be exerted on the negotiations)," announces the think tank.

One of the conditions of the kingdom is that the new UN envoy take into account the autonomy solution it proposes and which the US administration advocates. According to the authors of the report, these conditions have "significantly reduced the pool of potential candidates." A former foreign minister who had been approached for the post is said to have declared: "no one wants to be associated with a diplomatic failure".

The think tank also notes that "despite the mobilization of the Polisario, the international reactions to the events that occurred in the Western Sahara were, for the most part, favorable to the rapid return of the ceasefire, or aligned with Morocco’s position".