CAN 2025: Time to break out the calculator? Here’s how Morocco can finish top of their group

After a successful start against the Comoros (2-0) and a setback against Mali (1-1), the host country is holding its breath. Morocco will have to wait for the final whistle of the third day of the group stage, this Monday, December 29, to know its definitive fate and, above all, its future opponent.

While qualification seems assured barring an unlikely catastrophe, Walid Regragui’s objective is clear: finish top of Group A.

Finishing first would allow the Atlas Lions to face one of the best third-placed teams in the round of 16. An opponent that would be more manageable than if they finished second. Indeed, finishing second in Group A would condemn Morocco to face the second-placed team in Group C, promising an early and perilous clash at the start of the knockout stage.

To avoid sweating and complicated calculations, there is only one solution: victory. However, other configurations are possible depending on the result of the other match in the group (Mali - Comoros).

Here are the scenarios that would allow Morocco to finish 1st in their group and qualify:

• Imperative victory: If Morocco beats Zambia, they will automatically finish first, regardless of the result of Mali.

• In case of a draw: If Morocco shares the points with Zambia, they will remain first on one condition: that Mali do not win against the Comoros by more than 2 goals (to maintain the advantage in goal difference).

• In case of defeat: Even if they lose against Zambia, Morocco can still keep the first place, but they will then have to count on a draw between Mali and the Comoros.